This is the last week of “talking season” and our last chance to speculate before we all get to see what the 2024 Clemson football team is really about.
In other words, the perfect time for a prediction column.
For the third year in a row, here are my game-by-game picks for the No. 14 Tigers, who got their lowest preseason AP Top 25 ranking in a decade earlier this month.
Aug. 31: vs. No. 1 Georgia in Atlanta
In its last 44 games, Georgia is 42-2 with two national championships. Whew. The Bulldogs are going to come back down to earth at some point, but it’s not this year. Carson Beck is the ideal quarterback for a UGA offense that spreads the ball around, and I’ll take that defense against just about anyone.
On the Clemson side: This game will be massive for the perception of starting QB Cade Klubnik and the offense at large. Compete with Georgia through three quarters or so and look the part physically (which the Tigers infamously did not do last year in an opening loss to Duke) and that’s a win.
I can’t declare an actual upset, though.
▪ Projected record to date: 0-1
Sept. 7: vs. App State
App State, forever known for its 2007 upset of Michigan, is one of the best Group of Five schools in the country. Its last eight games against Power Five teams have all been decided by seven points or fewer.
But Death Valley is a brutal place for anyone to play – App State lost by 31 points in its last trip to Memorial Stadium in 2015. Coach Dabo Swinney has lost just one game to a non-major school in his Clemson career (USF in 2010). Oh, and it’s a night game.
Clemson takes care of business in this one.
▪ Projected record to date: 1-1
Sept. 21: vs. No. 24 NC State
What an excellent run coach Dave Doeren and the Wolfpack have been on. NC State’s won eight or more games in six of the last seven seasons and is coming off a 9-4 year. The Wolfpack are also 2-2 in their last four games against Clemson.
One key factor here: Venue. Clemson is 0-2 in its last two trips to Raleigh. But NC State has lost 10 straight at Clemson dating back to 2002, a trend that’ll cancel out the talents of Wolfpack receiver KC Concepcion and quarterback Grayson McCall.
The Tigers’ home crowd gives them an edge here (again).
▪ Projected record to date: 2-1
Sept. 28: vs. Stanford
Ah, longtime ACC rivals Clemson and Stanford. These two teams have battled a whopping one time: in the 1986 Gator Bowl, played about 15 years before anyone on Clemson’s roster was born. Now, 38 years later, can the Cardinal avenge that loss?
I don’t think so. Stanford was 3-9 last year in its final season in the Pac-12 (RIP) and is picked to finish last among 17 teams in the new-look ACC. Kudos to the school for rolling the dice on a former FCS coach (Troy Taylor), but it won’t help here.
▪ Projected record to date: 3-1
Oct. 5: at No. 10 Florida State
Here, things get interesting. If Clemson, positioned in this hypothetical at 3-1, marches down to Tallahassee and beats its one-time starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei at his new place? Even with a loss to Georgia, the Tigers will be in the driver’s seat to win the ACC and earn a top four seed in the College Football Playoff.
This current iteration of Clemson hasn’t come through in such moments, though. Klubnik and the Tigers lost three games on the road last year, where — to their reputational credit — they continue to get everyone’s best shot. With emotions running high, reigning league champion FSU topples the Tigers once again.
▪ Projected record to date: 3-2
Oct. 12: at Wake Forest
Time to make my annual Dave Clawson-Washington Generals joke. Wake Forest’s coach has elevated the program tremendously, but he hasn’t been able to crack the puzzle that is Swinney’s Harlem Globetrotters.
Swinney is a stunning 15-0 against Wake Forest in his Clemson career and 10-0 against Clawson. The last two games have been tight – Clemson by six points in 2022 and five points in 2023 – but victories nonetheless. Expect another one here.
▪ Projected record to date: 4-2
Oct. 19: vs. Virginia
Tony Elliott’s return to Clemson should elicit a lot of good vibes, and rightfully so. He was a huge part of two Tigers national championship teams as an assistant. His Cavaliers were better than their 3-9 record in 2023 showed, too.
Swinney, though, is 5-0 all-time against the Virginia, picked to finish 16th in the ACC this year. The Cavaliers always show some spunk against ranked opponents, but this one’s a clean win for Clemson with a big defensive showing.
▪ Projected record to date: 5-2
Nov. 2: vs. Louisville
As Swinney often says, winning is hard. Particularly hard at a place like Louisville when you don’t have a slam dunk option at quarterback. The Cardinals starting 10-1 and making the ACC championship in coach Jeff Brohm’s first season? Impressive.
Finishing 0-3 that same season? Not as impressive, and perhaps a better sign of who Louisville’s going to be in 2024 — a team that’ll almost certainly make a bowl … but finish more in the six- to seven-win range. Clemson holds off the Cards at home.
▪ Projected record to date: 6-2
Nov. 9: at Virginia Tech
Enter: Sandman. Exit: Clemson’s College Football Playoff hopes. At this point in our exercise, Clemson has two losses, but that’s not a deal breaker in a 12-team field. Plus, the Tigers have just one ACC loss (FSU) and are still alive in the conference.
Not after visiting Blacksburg. Things can get intense in a hurry in Virginia Tech’s Lane Stadium, and you get the feeling this one’s going to be a night game if coach Brent Pry’s Hokies are at least a little competitive (a safe bet).
With a key defensive or special teams TD mixed in, Virginia Tech upsets Clemson and functionally eliminates Swinney and company from a fourth straight CFP.
▪ Projected record to date: 6-3
Nov. 16: at Pittsburgh
Swinney’s Tigers have thrived with their back against the wall in recent years. After starting 4-3 in 2021, they finished 6-0. After starting 4-4 last year, they finished 5-0. The takeaway: Even after a gut-wrenching loss, Clemson’s going to keep fighting.
A week after falling out of CFP contention, Clemson takes out its frustration on a lackluster Pitt team that had a top defender transfer because, as he put it, “we are (in) a developmental stage. And I just can’t do that right now.”
▪ Projected record to date: 7-3
Nov. 23: vs. The Citadel
Recall that in the years Clemson hosts South Carolina in Death Valley, it holds Senior Day ceremonies the week before. Smart. On top of the warm fuzzies that come with those festivities, the Tigers are 38-0 all-time against FCS teams (as they should be).
This will be a manageable and enjoyable pre-Thanksgiving blowout for all.
▪ Projected record to date: 8-3
Nov. 30: vs. South Carolina
If you’re going to miss the College Football Playoff, you might as well end the year by eliminating your biggest rival from bowl eligibility. Clemson did as much in 2023 to South Carolina — and I think there’s a decent chance the Tigers do the same in 2024.
The Gameco*cks have some really good, veteran defenders. And QB LaNorris Sellers is quite an athlete. A brutal schedule awaits, though, and South Carolina enters the Clemson game at 5-6 (again). Give me Klubnik, in a signature performance, taking care of business with four total touchdowns as Clemson wins the Palmetto Bowl.
The end result for Clemson: Nine wins and a 6-2 ACC record, which won’t be enough to sneak into the ACC championship game but will allow the Tigers to snag the league’s top non-CFP spot and potentially reach 10 wins in the postseason.
Pop-Tarts Bowl, anyone?
▪ Final record prediction: 9-3
