Michael King saw his walk rate increase down the stretch, and he'll start the playoffs against a disciplined Atlanta Braves lineup. Our MLB prop picks think that spells trouble for the San Diego hurler.
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Oct 1, 2024 • 09:28 ET • 4 min read
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Postseason baseball is here, and the Wild Card Round begins with four games on Tuesday, October 1.
Our top MLB player props have you covered for all the action, with a trio of pitcher picks headlined by Orioles ace Corbin Burnes continuing to pile up strikeouts against the struggling Royals.
MLB props for October 1
- Burnes Over 4.5 strikeouts (-155 at DraftKings)
- Severino Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+115 at BetMGM)
- King Over 1.5 walks allowed (+105 at BetMGM)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Corbin Burnes Over 4.5 strikeouts
-155 at DraftKings
TheKansas City Royals offense was straight bad following the injury to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (thumb), with a 30th-ranked .254 wOBA and a healthy 25% strikeout rate across 27 games.Pasquantino might return Tuesday, but he’s been out for a month, and Baltimore Orioles starter Corbin Burnes has been piling up strikeouts across his past three trips to the hill with an 11.37 K/9 and 36.4 K%.
Burnes has also held opposing hitters to a tidy 5.4 barrel percentage and 27% hard-hit rate during the three-start stretch, and he’s recorded 5+ strikeouts in each. I also value the Royals sporting a 22nd-ranked .295 wOBA on the road this season, in addition to the market moving to the Over early.
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Prop bet #2: Luis Severino Over 2.5 earned runs allowed
+115 at BetMGM
The New York Mets righty has been a mess away from pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Luis Severino should have a long leash Tuesday following a busy four-day stretch for the bullpen.
Severino posted a 5.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the highway this season, and he’s also sporting 5.63 and 1.19 marks across his past three starts while allowing 3+ earned runs in each.
TheMilwaukee Brewers send out a strong lineup against righties with a seventh-ranked .321 wOBA and fifth-ranked .9.4 BB%, too.
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Prop bet #3: Michael King Over 1.5 walks allowed
+105 at BetMGM
There’s been a slight uptick in free passes issued by San Diego Padres starter Michael King down the stretch, and the converted reliever has also soared over his prior career-high innings count with 173 2/3 frames across 31 appearances.
King has jumped to a 3.76 BB/9 and 9.6 BB% through his final seven regular-season starts compared to 3.13 and 8.4% marks across his first 24 appearances.
Additionally, he’s walked 2+ batters in five of his past seven outings. The Atlanta Braves were also more disciplined at the dish down the stretch, with a ninth-ranked 8.8 BB% in the final month of the season.
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Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.